May and Corbyn in a similar Brexit pickle

The recent bizarre twists and turns of UK politics, as far as the two largest parties are concerned, seem to have brought us to a situation where on the biggest issue of a generation (Brexit) each party leadership is at odds with its own members and supporters.

Firstly Reuters reports on a poll of Tory Party members who, by a significant majority, oppose Teresa May’s Brexit Deal:-

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-conservatives/most-of-mays-conservative-party-members-oppose-her-brexit-deal-survey-idUKKCN1OY004

Secondly, Political Betting shows that by another significant margin Jeremy Corbyn is well out of step with his members and supporters:-

www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/01/02/new-polling-finds-just-28-of-ge2017-lab-voters-support-the-partys-stance-on-brexit/

Both leaderships plough on regardless hoping and praying that the loyalty of their members and supporters will pull them through. Both, of course, have their core vote which will back the party no matter what it stands for; such is party political tribalism. Labour also has the advantage, which The Tories don’t, of the cultish supporters of Corbyn who will back and defend him whatever. The Tories are far more ruthless and will stab their leader in the back without a care when they have outlived their usefulness.

So what’s going to give? The Tory leadership is now openly blackmailing Tory MP’s to support May’s Brexit Deal (which many of them hate with a passion) or face a no deal Brexit which they will carry the can for. Corbyn, on the other hand, can try to sit tight and hope that he can help push a Brexit deal through whilst blaming the Tories for it being a bad deal. Trouble is by a big margin his MP’s are Remainers, but Corbyn has them over the barrel of deselection if they defy him as many Labour constituency parties are in the hands of his Momentum entryists. That’s why of course we are seeing the vast majority of social democrat Labour MP’s keeping their heads down.

Where’s smart money being placed on the outcome? One plausible scenario looks like this – May’s deal will get through after a big fight and much manoeuvring of the deckchairs on HMS UK Titanic, possibly by enough Labour MP’s abstaining for it to scrape through. Jobs will be lost, investment in the UK will fall, the NHS will struggle to gain the desperately needed investment and the Tories will win the next election. We will be on our way to being a tax haven with very poor (yes even worse than today) public services and the manipulative rich and powerful will have won the day.

Of course, another scenario ends up with a Peoples Vote and we put a stop to all this isolationist nonsense which has gripped the UK for the past few years. We could even put the racists back in their box and return to being a caring country that is welcome across the world rather than being seen as a laughing stock.

Take your pick but I know where I want things to end up:-

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