Bexit – May is facing all kinds of difficulties – Makes you wonder if it will actually happen

www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-08-08/brexit-red-lines-drafted-by-eu-27-as-u-k-prepares-its-strategy?cmpid=GP.Markets

This is an interesting read – see link above – and it shows how Prime Minister May has been put in a big hole with a spade to help her dig it deeper. In reality she has no way out of the hole of course and it may well finish her in the fullness of time.

My thanks to Roy Connell for spotting this story.

Brexit worries are getting deeper

www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-manufacturing-falls-even-faster-than-thought-in-wake-of-vote-a7165911.html

The link above is to an article on the Independent web site which is well worth reading and it seems to indicate that we are potentially heading back into recession.

‘Manufacturing activity fell even more rapidly in the wake of the Brexit vote than first expected, according to the latest much-watched survey snapshot of the sector.’

Is Brexit really to blame? Probably. Do Brexiters care? Some of them clearly don’t as they voted on a ‘bugger the consequences’ basis as I pointed out in my last posting about the EU referendum a few of days ago. A link to that posting is available below:-

tonyrobertson.mycouncillor.org.uk/2016/08/02/brexit-why-did-it-happen-and-will-it-hasten-pr/

My thanks to Roy Connell for spotting this story.

Brexit – Why did it happen and will it hasten PR?

www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b07mj400/britains-vote-in-the-eu-referendum

I am grateful to my friend Bob for pointing me in the direction of the link above on BBC I Player, which is in the form of a series presentations from knowledgeable people who have tried to understand why people voted the way they did in the recent referendum.

The first speaker to my mind makes some cutting and accurate remarks about how Blair took power away from working people and thereby created the vacuum for UKIP to move into.

The video is quite long but it is worth sticking with it so that all the shades of opinion can be taken on board.

Where it leaves us to my mind and indeed to that of Bob is that we desperately need an electoral system where every vote actually counts as opposed to the present one where in many constituencies it simply does not.

In the recent referendum folks voted in reasonably large numbers because they knew their vote was of equal value to that of other voters. They also voted to bloody the nose of the establishment that had disenfranchised them on an almost bugger the consequences basis.

Obviously as a ‘Remainer’ I feel the result was one hell of an own goal for the UK and that the dire consequences will take years to unfold. But at least I am getting a clear view as to why the electorate took what at face value was an irrational decision with such worrying consequences.

Brexit – A wish for the death penalty and harking back to the past?

www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-36803544

The BBC has the story on its web site – see link above

This is interesting and it fits with my thoughts as I have tried to get my head around why many folks voted for Brexit. This particular quote from the piece is telling about Brexit voters:-

“They tended to value things like order, stability and safety against things like openness, modernity and other social-liberal values that were more popular among Remain voters. Often it’s about harking back to the past – sometimes a feeling that they don’t belong to the present.”

I had thought that wanting to almost go back in time, as their rose tinted spectacles were saying to them it was better in the old days, was a factor but the link to capital punishment is chilling indeed.

I suppose Cameron exposed, in his ill judged referendum, that we are now two very different sets of people in the UK and frankly you can’t see much possibility of reconciliation between the two opposing views. It may, to use a Northern Ireland type analogy, have to wait until there are less of us living in the past and more living for the present and future for the situation to be overturned. I hope I live to see that day.

PS. I am often accused of living in the past due to my love of steam locomotives and 1970’s soul music but, even though I clearly have my own pair of rose tinted spectacles, I was in no way persuaded to vote for Brexit.

14 months of playing the Tories games

Who living today will forget the appalling EU Referendum campaign with all its lies, exaggerations and misleading information. And who will ever forget the leadership crisis it precipitated in the Tory, Labour, Green and UKIP Parties.

We got the world’s attention alright and then made utter fools of ourselves and our democratic and tolerant values right in front of it. We could not have damaged the UK’s reputation any more if we had sent Cameron to the sea to hold it back or even appointed Boris to be say Foreign Secretary. We have sadly become the fool of the western world.

But we have in reality simply been playing a Tory Game of Thrones throughout this appalling debacle. Just look at the events.

Cameron only promised an EU referendum because he thought he would be in Coalition again and that the Lib Dems would block it. He was right about the latter but totally misjudged the former, as did many others. Can you imagine his disbelief and angst at the General Election result in 2015. He was now going to have to deliver on that promise he had made to keep his troops quiet, never actually thinking he would have to implement it! Oh dear what to do now, it had all been set up not to happen with the Lib Dems carrying the can for blocking it. The pollsters and electorate (assisted by our warped electoral system) had played a cruel trick on him and it will be a trick that will probably sink us all.

It was of course a terrible gamble that Cameron felt he had been forced to play because so many of this troops were on the verge of tripping over to UKIP. It was a punt that will ruin any credibility that he thought he would leave office with. The man who gambled every last chip at the poker table to save his Party but who lost the nations shirt (and pretty much the rest of our clothes) when his chips were down.

But he had made his bed and he thought he could lie down in it and win the referendum. He was very wrong as the Tory Party ripped itself to shreds and deepened its its already cavernous EU divisions. He has, of course, had to walk away and has done so a man in utter disgrace despite all the platitudes and goodbye smiles.

But it also transpired that Labour’s divisions were about to be exposed big time as well as their right wing (sometimes called Red Tories) decided to use what it said was Jeremy Corbyn’s lacklustre performance during the EU Referendum as a stick to beat him with. In fact that allegation seems not to stand up to close scrutiny as despite the press and ‘Red Tories’ saying Corbyn did not make the effort the facts look to be just the opposite. I am no apologist for the Labour leadership but the very best you can say about the attacks on Corbyn’s EU performance is that it was nowhere near as bad as his detractors have said it was.

So Labour fell apart too thanks to Cameron’s referendum, although this was probably his only personal bright spot this year!

And then Tory rats who had been sailing the good ship UK into high Brexit seas all decided to jump ship when they had filled the UK electorate with utter nonsense and won! They knew what they had done (you could see it in their let’s get out quick faces) and they were not about to stay around to help clean up the mess; even the UKIP leader ran off with them. But bizarrely May has brought Boris back for more punishment in a high profile job he could not resist!

So Tories, Labour and UKIP have all gone for a new leader, well Labour’s Red Tories want one but the left does not. We presently only know the result of the Tory selection as it was no election. It had more drop-outs than a poor university course!

Don’t you think it was odd that Johnson backed out of the Tory leadership race and was it not even more odd that Loathsome also backed out at the last minute? It’s it the case that the Tory 1922 Committee realised that a public election campaign between Loathsome and May would again tear the Tories apart so Loathsome was advised to back out? May therefore has been crowned without being exposed to the unpredictable and some Tories would say barmy Tory Party membership. But of course she has no mandate and no legitimacy.

So the whole charade since May 2015 has been about the Tory Party with us the poor bloody electorate being manipulated at every turn. Yes of course the process has also exposed fatal flaws in the Labour Party but that rematch has been on the cards ever since Neil Kinnock and then Tony Blair managed to chase socialists out of what was meant to be socialist party. The referendum result simply precipitated another attack by punch drunk Red Tories on Corbyn but it would have happened anyway.

But you know the Tories having manipulated themselves and us into a bloody awful mess expect to be able to rise up again and all will be OK with the Party that usually governs the UK. But will it?

Scotland having rid itself of a tired authoritarian Labour Party is surely going to go for independence again and who would bet against them getting it, deserving it and needing it? Sadly there are now few credible arguments for the Scots to stay in the UK and I say that as one who hoped they would stay in the first independence referendum.

And Northern Ireland, what will they do having voted to stay in the EU with Scotland. Clearly things are not so clear cut there with the Protestant community still wanting to cling on to being a part of the UK. But you know a united Ireland must be more on the cards now than it has ever been since separation because the Irish Republic is strongly supportive of the EU.

But then there’s the Remain voters in England and Wales who are clearly and thankfully (from my point of view) not going to take Brexit and all the potential trouble that comes with it lying down. Brexit voters may continue to tell us to ‘deal with it’, ‘shut up’, ‘move on’ but they must be on something if they think such advice will be listened to.

And finally (for now) there’s the huge question of what happens next. Clearly the Brexiters had no plan and had no intention of coming up with one. Is that why May has put them in Cabinet positions where they have no choice? When you ask them, as I have, you get awkward smiles, ‘it’ll all be OK’ type remarks and a change of subject. Some of them wanted Brexit at any cost so don’t seem to give a damn what happens next, although you can be sure they will pointing the finger of blame at everyone but themselves if and when the wheels do come off.

So Mrs. May you have a lot on your plate and no plan other than to say it will all work out well, or words that effect. Why you can see her sat down with Sir Humphrey now:-

Prime Minister – Your advice Sir Humphrey?

Sir Humphrey – Please read the transcript of the advice I gave to Mr Cameron Prime Minister.

Prime Minister – What good will that do?

Sir Humphrey – Well he ignored all the advice I gave him and he therefore created the hole that you are now sat deeply in Prime Minister.

Prime Minister – Oh bugger Cameron Humpy you know that advice was given to him so that he would ignore it – It was wasn’t it?

Sir Humphrey – No Prime Minister it was not. Time to Kiss your backside goodbye Prime Minister, I am off to advise the Scottish Government. But do not worry Prime Minister Mr Trump may be coming over the pond to give you the benefit of his advice, I am sure you will get on famously!