May and Corbyn in a similar Brexit pickle

The recent bizarre twists and turns of UK politics, as far as the two largest parties are concerned, seem to have brought us to a situation where on the biggest issue of a generation (Brexit) each party leadership is at odds with its own members and supporters.

Firstly Reuters reports on a poll of Tory Party members who, by a significant majority, oppose Teresa May’s Brexit Deal:-

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-conservatives/most-of-mays-conservative-party-members-oppose-her-brexit-deal-survey-idUKKCN1OY004

Secondly, Political Betting shows that by another significant margin Jeremy Corbyn is well out of step with his members and supporters:-

www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/01/02/new-polling-finds-just-28-of-ge2017-lab-voters-support-the-partys-stance-on-brexit/

Both leaderships plough on regardless hoping and praying that the loyalty of their members and supporters will pull them through. Both, of course, have their core vote which will back the party no matter what it stands for; such is party political tribalism. Labour also has the advantage, which The Tories don’t, of the cultish supporters of Corbyn who will back and defend him whatever. The Tories are far more ruthless and will stab their leader in the back without a care when they have outlived their usefulness.

So what’s going to give? The Tory leadership is now openly blackmailing Tory MP’s to support May’s Brexit Deal (which many of them hate with a passion) or face a no deal Brexit which they will carry the can for. Corbyn, on the other hand, can try to sit tight and hope that he can help push a Brexit deal through whilst blaming the Tories for it being a bad deal. Trouble is by a big margin his MP’s are Remainers, but Corbyn has them over the barrel of deselection if they defy him as many Labour constituency parties are in the hands of his Momentum entryists. That’s why of course we are seeing the vast majority of social democrat Labour MP’s keeping their heads down.

Where’s smart money being placed on the outcome? One plausible scenario looks like this – May’s deal will get through after a big fight and much manoeuvring of the deckchairs on HMS UK Titanic, possibly by enough Labour MP’s abstaining for it to scrape through. Jobs will be lost, investment in the UK will fall, the NHS will struggle to gain the desperately needed investment and the Tories will win the next election. We will be on our way to being a tax haven with very poor (yes even worse than today) public services and the manipulative rich and powerful will have won the day.

Of course, another scenario ends up with a Peoples Vote and we put a stop to all this isolationist nonsense which has gripped the UK for the past few years. We could even put the racists back in their box and return to being a caring country that is welcome across the world rather than being seen as a laughing stock.

Take your pick but I know where I want things to end up:-

Brexit is a busted flush poll reveals but Corbyn still backs it against the poor

The Guardian has the article on its website – see link below:-

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/dec/20/polls-stay-eu-yougov-brexit-peoples-vote?CMP=share_btn_link

The headline from the Peter Kellner article makes a powerful case – ‘The polls are clear: support for staying in the EU has rocketed’

With thanks to Bob Robinson for the lead to this posting

Stop Press – Corbyn re-rails Brexit with defiant message to pursue it at all costs seemingly –

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/21/jeremy-corbyn-labour-policy-leaving-eu?CMP=share_btn_tw

Thanks Jez but at least we know where we stand with you – lob losses, an even more underfunded NHS, collapsing economy and the poor being made poorer all so you can have your socialist revolution. Is there anything the Labour leadership will not sacrifice on the altar of socialism?

Merseyside – The job losses of Brexit

Just what the Brexiteers ordered, or is it? – Job losses!

The Liverpool Echo has the article on its website – see link below:-

www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/how-brexit-could-kill-thousands-15532708

So Teresa and her Brexit buddy Jez, the Brexit enabler, continue to drive the UK over the edge to fulfil their joint desire to force a Brexit upon us that the electorate no longer supports. No big benefits of leaving the EU (there never were any), plenty of job losses (are you listening no job loss Corbyn?) and all this misery just to help the Tory Party deal with its internal difficulties.

No wonder that folks on Merseyside are backing a Peoples Vote to put an end to this gross stupidity. And it’s time for more of our local MP’s to come out from behind their Brexit Sofas and make it clear that they will back a Peoples Vote.

‘Britain no longer has a functioning Government’ (or Official Opposition)

Reuters has the story on its website – see link below:-

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-labour/britain-no-longer-has-a-functioning-government-labour-party-idUKKBN1O91G9

For Corbyn, who leads a completely dysfunctional Labour opposition, to say that the same is true of the Tory Government beggars belief. Of course, Corbyn is not wrong about May’s limping leadership but he makes his comments from a bubble all of his own where the major fault lines between his Brexit leaning Labour leadership and the Party’s MP’s, members and supporters don’t exist!

Have we ever had a situation in the past when the Government and Official Opposition are in such a terrible mess?

Brexit – May V Corbyn – It’s actually not a party political matter

The British media see things in a rather black and white way and often things can be like that. However, in politics especially at the moment, things are actually many shades of grey. Just look at this article from the BBC website about how many Conservative Brexit factions there are:-

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46386172

And of course, Labour is also split. Their leadership is Brexit leaning it’s just that they want a different deal to the one that May has negotiated. Corbyn, of course, has always been anti-EU. However, lots of Labour MP’s are pro-EU and anti-Brexit although with many Labour constituency party organisations being dominated by Momentum those MP’s hardly ever speak out for fear of being deselected for opposing Jeremy’s view.

So a May V Corbyn debate is actually pointless as fundamentally they both want the same thing i.e. to leave the EU except that Corbyn says he can negotiate a different deal to the one May has come up with.

One leading commentator said this of the proposed debate, which sums up the situation perfectly:-

Mike Galsworthy – ‘As far as I’m concerned… A May-Corbyn debate on Brexit is going to be like watching two flat-earthers arguing over who can explain gravity better’

My point is this, any sensible debate should actually be between May and a representative of the cross-party People’s Vote Campaign. Personally, I’m not bothered who that representative should be but here are a few suggestions – Sarah Wollaston MP, Vince Cable MP, Alastair Campbell, Caroline Lucas MP. I think I would probably plump for Campbell.

Surely no one wants a no deal scenario other than complete Brexit nutters so the real choice in the ridiculous situation the UK now finds itself is between May’s deal and Remain.

However, there could be a point in having Corbyn in the TV debate too so that he has an opportunity to explain how different his deal with the EU would look and how he would achieve it. We get it that Corbyn and the Labour leadership feel they can negotiate a different, even a better deal, than May has done but where will the differences be? We need to see Labour’s Brexit Deal detail or indeed have Corbyn exposed for not having a real alternative at all.

That May’s deal is rubbish seems to be a given across Brexteers and Remainers so staying in the EU is the only really sensible alternative to it unless Corbyn can clearly show why and how his Brexit deal would be better than staying in the EU. If Corbyn can show his Brexit would be better for jobs, the economy, the NHS etc. than staying in the EU then his next step would have to be to get Article 50 extended whilst he wins a General Election and then delivers his deal. A tough ask indeed because he would also have to show why the EU would back his alternative.

With thanks to Roy Connell for thew lead to this posting.

Jeremy Corbyn on Brexit – He just does not or will not get it!

The Guardian has the story on its website – see link below:-

www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/nov/26/labour-to-block-peoples-vote-taking-part-in-brexit-tv-debate-jeremy-corbyn

Quote from the Guardian article – ‘Labour will not allow a representative of the People’s Vote campaign to take part in any televised Brexit debate involving Theresa May’ – What a damming indictment of the Labour Leadership’s appalling pro-Brexit stance, which flies in the face of the overwhelming opinion of Labour’s members and supporters.

With thanks to Bob for the lead to this posting