May and Corbyn in a similar Brexit pickle

The recent bizarre twists and turns of UK politics, as far as the two largest parties are concerned, seem to have brought us to a situation where on the biggest issue of a generation (Brexit) each party leadership is at odds with its own members and supporters.

Firstly Reuters reports on a poll of Tory Party members who, by a significant majority, oppose Teresa May’s Brexit Deal:-

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-conservatives/most-of-mays-conservative-party-members-oppose-her-brexit-deal-survey-idUKKCN1OY004

Secondly, Political Betting shows that by another significant margin Jeremy Corbyn is well out of step with his members and supporters:-

www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2019/01/02/new-polling-finds-just-28-of-ge2017-lab-voters-support-the-partys-stance-on-brexit/

Both leaderships plough on regardless hoping and praying that the loyalty of their members and supporters will pull them through. Both, of course, have their core vote which will back the party no matter what it stands for; such is party political tribalism. Labour also has the advantage, which The Tories don’t, of the cultish supporters of Corbyn who will back and defend him whatever. The Tories are far more ruthless and will stab their leader in the back without a care when they have outlived their usefulness.

So what’s going to give? The Tory leadership is now openly blackmailing Tory MP’s to support May’s Brexit Deal (which many of them hate with a passion) or face a no deal Brexit which they will carry the can for. Corbyn, on the other hand, can try to sit tight and hope that he can help push a Brexit deal through whilst blaming the Tories for it being a bad deal. Trouble is by a big margin his MP’s are Remainers, but Corbyn has them over the barrel of deselection if they defy him as many Labour constituency parties are in the hands of his Momentum entryists. That’s why of course we are seeing the vast majority of social democrat Labour MP’s keeping their heads down.

Where’s smart money being placed on the outcome? One plausible scenario looks like this – May’s deal will get through after a big fight and much manoeuvring of the deckchairs on HMS UK Titanic, possibly by enough Labour MP’s abstaining for it to scrape through. Jobs will be lost, investment in the UK will fall, the NHS will struggle to gain the desperately needed investment and the Tories will win the next election. We will be on our way to being a tax haven with very poor (yes even worse than today) public services and the manipulative rich and powerful will have won the day.

Of course, another scenario ends up with a Peoples Vote and we put a stop to all this isolationist nonsense which has gripped the UK for the past few years. We could even put the racists back in their box and return to being a caring country that is welcome across the world rather than being seen as a laughing stock.

Take your pick but I know where I want things to end up:-

‘Britain no longer has a functioning Government’ (or Official Opposition)

Reuters has the story on its website – see link below:-

uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-eu-labour/britain-no-longer-has-a-functioning-government-labour-party-idUKKBN1O91G9

For Corbyn, who leads a completely dysfunctional Labour opposition, to say that the same is true of the Tory Government beggars belief. Of course, Corbyn is not wrong about May’s limping leadership but he makes his comments from a bubble all of his own where the major fault lines between his Brexit leaning Labour leadership and the Party’s MP’s, members and supporters don’t exist!

Have we ever had a situation in the past when the Government and Official Opposition are in such a terrible mess?

Brexit has always been about the Tory Party’s splits

Brexit has always been about the Tory Party trying to grapple with its opposing factions and the referendum was called to help heal Tory splits. But of course, it has widened those splits whilst bizarrely dragging in some Labour folk who should know a lot better than to have joined in.

It really is time for Labour to come off the fence and be very clear that they will fight Brexit in all its forms. It’s no use Labour leaders calling for a Brexit on their terms as it will be just as bad as the Tory Brexit. Only staying in the EU will protect jobs, the NHS and our economy – it’s not rocket science Jeremy.

The election that took us deeper into chaos

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jun/10/general-election-nothing-to-celebrate-brexit-still-happening-tory-government

The Guardian has the story on its web site – see link above

Goodness this is a powerful insight into the mess that is UK politics today.

And what’s all this Labour celebrating about, they lost, progressive politics lost and we are in a worse situation than we were before the election was called!

The good ship HMS UK has been holed at the waterline yet again and we are firing the guns at ourselves!

With thanks to Roy Connell for the lead to this posting.

General Election – Reflections of a radical lefty

Brexit – Well it now seemingly has huge support as both Labour and Tories were backed to pursue it. What happened to the 48% who voted against Brexit because many of them must have effectively voted for it this time around?

Nick Clegg – Probably for the best that he lost his seat. In many way he was one of the most intelligent and knowledgeable MP in Parliament but because of his poor judgement over tuition fees (he said he would oppose them and did the opposite) he found himself in a place from which there was no return. Indeed, he ended up being blamed for tuition fees when in fact they were brought in by Labour who, in this most recent election, pledged to abolish their own previous policy!

Diane Abbott and Teresa May – They had terrible campaigns, end of. Diane was seemingly incapable of fielding incoming fire whilst submarine commander May kept ducking under the waves to avoid the fire. Has any Prime Minister/Party Leader been so detached from an election campaign before?

Jeremy Corbyn – Well he did not implode as the hostile press said he would, in fact did reasonably well as a 1970’s socialist with a love of nationalisation. Maybe Labour kept sending in Diane Abbott because they knew she would be terrible so taking the pressure of Jeremy? If they did it was a well thought out move.

Ulster Unionists – Oh dear what will become of us now the fate of the Government is probably in their hands? Yes, they will get the blame for supporting the Tories when unpopular things are done but then again on Brexit and Welfare reform the Tories may be relying on Labour backing/abstaining based on recent history. It certainly makes me feel very uncomfortable that our country will in effect be in the hands of a political party which promotes sectarian politics! What’s the chances of it not ending up in tears?

Polarised UK? – Well yes when viewed from some angles but on the biggest issue of the day – Brexit – the Tories and Labour were actually united over pursuing what will inevitably be a disastrous economic process from which the poor will suffer the most.

Pensioners – How many pensioners actually voted Conservative despite their triple lock pensions (brought in by the Lib Dems) being under threat from the Tories? And what about the Conservative’s Dementia tax and their promised cuts to Winter Fuel Allowance? Did some pensioners vote Tory because they still want Brexit at any cost.

Young People – Many voted Labour because of their promise to abolish tuition fees but in doing so they also voted for some Labour MP’s who in effect support the restriction of freedom of movement, via Brexit, which is in no way in the interests of young people. And how on earth did Labour MP Kate Hoey survive? She has been the female bookend to Nigel Farage, representing a constituency which voted heavily (76.6%) against Brexit, yet she was re-elected with a thumping majority?

Tim Farron – He had a decent campaign with the limited exposure he got on TV and radio. He lacks the charisma of Charles Kennedy or Paddy Ashdown but he made a good fist of it.

Conclusion – Not a good election for us radical lefties but then again are they ever? Each time the deck chairs get moved around but the government of the day is always too right wing!